How Iran’s protests promise to continue
What we know is that the protests in Iran have continued for four weeks now and signs indicate they are heading into their second month. What started with outrage over the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, killed in police custody for not “properly” covering her hair, immediately escalated far beyond the hijab and women's rights.
People in the streets of 185 cities across Iran chanting “Death to Khamenei!”, “Death to the dictator!” and “Mullahs get lost!” are directly targeting Ali Khamenei, the regime’s Supreme Leader, better described as the dictator.
Elevating matters to another level, the Iranian people are chanting two particularly important slogans: “Death to the Oppressor! Be it the Shah or [Khamenei]!” and “Don’t call it protests! This is now a revolution!” This indicates the path forward taken by the Iranian people in this nationwide uprising and their determination to put behind and overcome anything resembling a monarchial/despotic rule in their quest to establish freedom and democracy in Iran.
The Iranian people have made it crystal clear that they are seeking an all-out regime change and the fact that protests have continued for so long is unprecedented in the past 43 years. On Monday, October 10, workers of a petrochemical site in the city of Asaluyeh in southern Iran went on strike. On Tuesday, October 11, workers of the Abadan Refinery, the largest oil refinery in Iran, launched their strike.
Last week we saw merchants of the old market (Bazaar) go on strike in Tehran. These are economic lifelines for the ruling mullahs and regime officials take these issues very seriously.
College students and even high schoolers in cities checkered throughout the country are joining the protests, indicating that even Iran’s Generation Z wants this regime gone and wishes to live in a free society, like what they see on the internet about life in the U.S. and Western Europe. Speaking of the internet, regime authorities are going the distance to impose blackouts to cloak the actual scope of this anti-regime uprising and the sheer brutality of its forces against the Iranian people who are merely seeking their God-given rights.
Of course, the regime is not holding back. On September 30, authorities massacred nearly 100 worshippers leaving a mosque in the city of Zahedan in Sistan & Baluchestan Province of southeast Iran. More than 300 were left wounded. There are also ongoing clashes in the Kurdish cities of Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and West Azerbaijan provinces. Heavy troop deployment is being reported by activists.
So far at least 400 people have been killed by the regime and over 20,000 apprehended, according to the Iranian opposition People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran.
One may think the November 2019 protests, during which the regime killed over 1,500 protesters, was more intense. However, there are a few important matters that need to be taken into consideration now in 2022.
a) The Iranian people, especially women and youth, are showing enormous courage in the face of the regime’s crackdown, standing their ground and fighting back for their rights.
b) Regime officials cannot risk dispatching their forces from one city or province to another as reinforcements while they are desperately needed. Each city and town in Iran now bears the potential of erupting in protests at any moment.
c) There is an escalating number of reports indicating various units of the regime’s security forces refusing to participate in the crackdown. If this trend escalates it poses a major challenge for the regime’s internal security.
d) The mullahs cannot tolerate a repeat of the international backlash of the November 2019 massacre of 1,500 protesters, especially at a time when a nuclear deal with world powers and follow-up foreign investments hang in the balance.
In Tehran, even locals in the richest parts of the capital’s uptown district are involved in these protests. This has never been witnessed before as we have usually seen the middle- or lower-class launching anti-regime movements. This time around, these protests are involving people from all walks of life and especially women, old and young, who are playing a key role and often leading the rallies.
Recent developments in Iran have also put the Biden administration and Europe in a dilemma regarding talks over a new nuclear deal with Tehran and any other engagement with a regime that is denying the Iranian people their very basic rights.
While obvious, it should be emphasized that no nuclear deal is possible at least until after the U.S.’ early November midterm elections. And if the regime sees the Republicans gaining one or both houses of Congress, then many things will change in their calculations regarding the future of the nuclear deal.
Even if the Democrats maintain their current control, the priority for the regime remains the protests on the ground. They would need to quell this evolving uprising, and fast, because the mullahs’ regime desperately needs to portray Iran as a stable country for foreign investment to arrive. Otherwise, no serious investor will consider pouring their assets into a restive country, let alone Iran that already has a troubling past and reputation, to say the least.
Another important matter is the misinterpretation of Iran’s protests by the West’s mainstream media parallel to an initiative of the regime’s apologists/lobbyists in downgrading Iran’s protests to the subjects of hijab, women’s rights, and change in the regime’s related laws. This couldn’t be further from the truth on the ground in the restive cities in Iran and an utter betrayal to the demands of brave protesters risking their lives every day against a ruthless regime.
The Iranian people fully understand that regime change in is on our shoulders and any type of direct foreign intervention would be counterproductive. There is no need for a single dollar or euro; no need for a single bullet or weapon; and no need for any boots on the ground.
What the West should do is provide political support by recognizing the Iranian people’s right to overthrow the oppressive mullahs’ regime, and deliver 24/7, uninterrupted access to the internet so we can report both the ongoing anti-regime protests and the mullahs’ horrific atrocities against the Iranian people.
To the people living in the West: call your elected representatives and have them pressure your government to provide the abovementioned support to the Iranian people and condition any and all relations with the mullahs’ regime on it respecting the Iranian people’s human rights.
To make a long story short, no one is saying the regime will be toppled tomorrow. However, the coming months will be imperative for both the mullahs to contain the expanding protests, and for the people to continue their initiative and build on the current momentum with the ultimate goal of toppling this regime in its entirety.